....And then there were Maoists!

The votes have been counted and the results are in. Maosists - the former rebels - have won the general elections in Nepal. It is an immensely surprising result to a historic general election and I am still trying to wrap my head around it.

As a recent college graduate who has spent the last 4 years (almost 5 now) away from Nepal, I do not think I am in a good position to judge the outcome of this election. I am not aware of the 'mood' of the general public in Nepal. It obviously is way different from what it was when I left home for college in 2003. However, having been estranged from the country and its people for so long, I have developed a way of looking into situations from the outside - not just literally. When I was home, it seemed I needed to pick a side. I was either against the Maoists or for them. I could never be neutral. But here in the US as I study/work, I can be completely neutral - something that took me a while to learn.

So as a neutral outside observer, I can confidently say that I have 'hope' and 'concern' for Nepal following the election results. I have hope that the Constituent Assembly and the government that comes into office will finally do some good for the people and economy after years of abuse and neglect. At the same time, I am deeply concerned about the underlying unrest within the social and political fabric of the nation. I am talking about the Madhesi ethnic group in the South, the potential of a political backlash from the losing parties and the frightening possibility of a Maoist run autocratic government.

Once again, I admit that I am in no position to pass judgements on the Maoists. They were underground when I was in Nepal and I haven't been back since they formally joined the political parties during the uprising against the Palace. But history - if history were to guide a portion of political actions - shows that leaders who gain power professing Marxism-Leninism or even Maoism, fail to embrace the ideologies of social-democracy. Robert Mugabe's unjust reign of Zimbabwe is the most recent example of this. The worst case scenario is thus:

Step1: After abolishing monarchy, Prachanda declares himself the President (it is well known he wants to) establishing himself as a political figure disengaged from the parliament but engaged with the people. In people's mind he would essentially become the new King because we are used to having a King rather than a parliament represent the people.

Step2: The Maoists use their threatening ways to write the Constitution to meet most (if not all) of their demands and decimate the other parties hence turning the Parliament into a one-party autocratic government. They did use threats and intimidation to get their demands prior to the general election effectively postponing it twice.

Step3: The Maoists 'merge' the People's Liberation Army (PLA) with the army - against the army's wish. This would create a military at the disposition of Prachanda and his government - an effective way to deal with dissidents among opposing parties and ethnic groups like the Madhesis.

This picture definitely looks scary. But Maosists are not the only party with the potential of a royal screw-up here. The losing parties (Nepali Congress, CPN-UML et. al.) could very well jeopardise any good intentions the Maoists have if they were to not participate in the government. A democratic government by nature and definition is supposed to reflect the entire publics views and opinions - not just the majority's. A good government should have political players who have differing views so that different sides of an issue can be examined in front of the general public before any concrete decisions are made. That is why we need the other parties to participate in the government and make it a truly democratic parliament.

The Maoist victory has been touted by many as a fresh change, a positive change. I really want to believe this. I want to see Nepal flourish and prosper. I want to see the people live in peace and enjoy a healthy economy. Personally, I do not care if this change comes from the Maoists or any other political party. I guess we will have to wait and see. In the meantime, one thing the Maoists could do to gain some positive PR is to apologize for the atrocities linked with their revolution and provide assistance to those affected by the violence.